Warning About Faulty Estimates in International Study That Could Reduce Sudan’s Share of Nile Water
Sudan Media Forum
Kampala, Sudanile — Water researchers have warned of flaws in an international study’s estimates of Sudan’s consumption of Nile water, which could reduce Sudan’s future share.
Sudanese water experts Professor Yasser Abbas and Professor Saif Eldin Hamad, both former Ministers of Irrigation and Water Resources, revealed serious gaps in the estimates of Sudan’s water use. They pointed out that relying on inaccurate data and unverified assumptions in some international studies threatens fairness in allocating water resources among Nile Basin countries.
Their remarks came in a scientific comment paper recently published in the International Journal of Hydrology, co-authored by Professor Yasser Abbas of the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands and Professor Saif Eldin Hamad of the Center for Water Security Studies in Sudan.
The researchers criticized a 2023 study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the United States, which estimated Sudan’s water use between 13.8 and 19.1 billion cubic meters annually. They argued this large range, exceeding 30%, reflects methodological weaknesses and inaccuracy. They explained that the study relied on data from Dongola station without cross-checking with data from Merowe Dam, leading to a difference of 5 to 6 billion cubic meters, which cannot be explained by evaporation or groundwater recharge alone. They also noted the study ignored the return flows from large irrigation schemes such as Gezira and Rahad, and instead calculated as if all water withdrawn from the Nile was fully consumed without returns.
The researchers offered two scenarios to interpret the difference between the Nile’s average flow at Aswan (84 billion m³) and at Dongola (80.5 billion m³). The first scenario assumed Sudan’s transmission losses were only 3.5 billion m³, which they considered unrealistic. The second scenario suggested losses of up to 12 billion m³, raising the estimated natural flow to 92.5 billion m³ annually, which questions the fairness of the 1959 Agreement and implies that both Sudan and Egypt may have received less than the actual flow.
The authors stressed the need for more accurate techniques, combining satellite data with field verification to ensure reliable results. They confirmed that while satellite images are useful, precise methodologies at the sub-basin level are essential, along with dependable data from reservoirs and actual operation stations. They called for further studies to close knowledge gaps and ensure fair and sustainable management.
Experts explained that the ongoing war has already weakened Sudan’s ability to use its share of the Nile. According to DW, dam expert Dr. Mohamed Hafez stated that since April 2023, when war broke out in Sudan, Lake Nasser has received about 90% of Sudan’s share, adding around 25 billion cubic meters. He pointed out that the lake’s water level would have dropped by 7.5 meters had Sudan remained politically stable. He added that if the war continues through September 2025, Lake Nasser could capture an additional 60 billion cubic meters of floodwaters, offsetting what has been stored in Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. Hafez further stated that if the war extends for several more years and Egypt continues to receive Sudan’s share, “Egypt could potentially compensate for about 80% of the anticipated water deficit after the GERD is completed, positively impacting its expectations about the dam’s effects.”
Sudan’s share of Nile water dates back to the 1959 bilateral agreement between Sudan and Egypt, which allocated 18.5 billion cubic meters annually to Sudan out of 84 billion m³ at Aswan, while Egypt received 55.5 billion m³. This agreement was an extension of earlier colonial-era treaties and did not include other Nile Basin countries, making it a continuous point of contention regionally and internationally, especially in light of Ethiopia’s 2011 announcement of the 74 billion m³ Grand Renaissance Dam without consulting Egypt and Sudan, which Egypt considered a violation of its acquired water rights and a threat to its national security.
It is important to note that the MIT study was unrelated to the current Nile water disputes but was conducted as part of independent academic research projects aimed at supporting understanding of water resources management in international river basins, especially those under conflict or water stress.
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The Sudan Media Forum and its member institutions are publishing this material, prepared by Sudanile, as part of its coverage of how war has affected the Sudanese state’s ability to manage and monitor some of its most sensitive and strategic files, most notably the Nile water issue and its related data and studies, such as this comment paper, which exposes faulty estimates that could jeopardize Sudan’s share of the Nile in the future if relied upon.
