The United States in the ``Maze`` of Sudans Peace File (Part 2/2)
Khalid Masa
As the United States became deeply immersed in Sudans political process through the "Quad Mechanism," aiming to script the final chapters of Sudans crisis, it seems that the U.S. Ambassador was preoccupied with ceremonial rituals and delivering his celebratory speech on December 5, 2022, during the signing of the "Framework Agreement." His hope was to complete his challenging mission in Sudan. However, he underestimated the historical complexities of Sudanese agreements, where "the devil is in the details." The framework agreement failed to bind the proverbial devil, which reemerged during the penultimate step: the security and military reform workshop. Despite sending multiple alarm bells, the U.S. remained deaf, learning about the outbreak of the April 15 war through the sounds of cannons and warplanes, just like everyone else caught off guard by the conflict.
Sudans file was a "secondary" priority for Jeffrey Feltman, the U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, who focused primarily on Ethiopias Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Tigray conflict. Feltman believed that his brief visit to Khartoum and meeting with the Sovereign Councils head, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, would suffice to resolve the transitional governments challenges. Yet, the government collapsed with the October 25 coup, just hours after his meeting with Burhan. Following the collapse of the fragile agreement between the army chief and Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, Feltman raised the white flag of resignation.
The U.S. failure and inability to navigate Sudans intricate file becomes evident when examining the ongoing war, now nearing its second year, marked by horrific violations, rising numbers of refugees and displaced persons, and its ripple effects on the region. Despite being a key player in efforts to stop the war, U.S. efforts have proven ineffective, as this article suggests. Even Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee admitted that handling Sudans file requires officials with deep knowledge of the country, underscoring the lack of expertise among U.S. special envoys for Sudan.
The Biden administration, nearing the end of its term, has been plagued by repeated diplomatic failures, evidenced by David Satterfields resignation just three months into his tenure as the U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.
In the case of Sudans April war, U.S. influence was limited to negotiating brief ceasefires that neither warring party respected. Instead, the U.S. recycled its "old wine" of sanctions in "new bottles," highlighting its inability to find a meaningful way out of Sudans maze.
The situation becomes even more concerning as President Joe Bidens Democratic administration enters its final days, with a Republican administration potentially assuming power. The Republicans, particularly under Donald Trump, are expected to approach Sudan with starkly different strategies, focusing on securing U.S. interests in the region amidst heightened competition from global rivals.
Even seasoned experts like Cameron Hudson, an academic and former CIA officer specializing in African affairs, have struggled to provide nuanced approaches to the Sudanese file. Relying on misinformation from social media echo chambers, Hudson wrote about trivial matters like handshakes at the signing of the Addis Ababa Declaration, reflecting the superficiality of U.S. engagement.
Unless the U.S. adopts a more profound, strategic approach to Sudans file and reforms its outdated thinking, it risks losing its influence in the Horn of Africa to competitors. Simply swapping Democratic teams for Republican ones in the White House without changing the playbook will yield no different results.
The U.S. needs a new generation of politicians and diplomats equipped to address the complex challenges of Sudan. This generation must exceed the limited capabilities of Special Envoy Tom Perriello, who left his mission in Sudan without achieving any notable success.
