Trump and Sudan: From Supporting Normalization to Ending Armed Conflict?
Source: www.dw.com
President Trump will focus his policies on conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and with China, but will Sudan also be a priority in his foreign policy, especially considering his previous administration’s strong support for Khartoum to normalize relations with Tel Aviv?
In the context of international competition for oil and natural resources in West Africa, resource-rich Sudan has also become a stage for geopolitical rivalry among major and regional powers, including China, India, Iran, Russia, Egypt, and the UAE. While the United States aims to make Africa a strategic base to secure oil supplies and reduce dependence on the Middle East, Sudan is at the center of this growing interest.
Attempts to Garner U.S. Support
The rush by some Sudanese figures and groups to congratulate President Donald Trump reflects their interest in strengthening ties with the new U.S. administration. This eagerness may represent an attempt to gain political support from the United States, especially given Sudans complex political and economic circumstances and its need for strong foreign relations to support stability and development. The Coordination of Civil and Democratic Forces congratulated Trump, expressing hope for a prominent role in achieving peace in Sudan and the region. Meanwhile, the leader of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), described Trump’s victory as "historic" and expressed readiness to cooperate toward comprehensive peace in Sudan, signaling a desire to benefit from U.S. support for internal stability. Transitional Sovereignty Council Chairman Abdel Fattah al-Burhan also expressed Sudans eagerness to strengthen relations with Washington, highlighting the importance of bilateral relations to achieve mutual interests.
Political analyst Saleh Shuaib, based in Virginia, believes the quick congratulations to Trump are tied to some Sudanese parties’ desire to benefit from Trump’s previous support of Sudan-Israel normalization agreements under the "Abraham Accords." Shuaib notes that Hemedti and Burhan, supporters of these agreements, aim to portray Trump as a potential ally, hoping for American support on the international stage.
According to some politicians, the Biden administration bears part of the responsibility for the escalating conflict in Sudan due to its neglect of the situation there following the overthrow of the Bashir regime in April 2019. In June of that year, the Rapid Support Forces committed a massacre during the dispersal of a sit-in outside the Sudanese Armed Forces headquarters. Despite these events, the Trump administration was primarily focused on Sudanese-Israeli normalization, which diminished attention to Sudans crisis.
In 2018, President Trump stirred significant controversy when it was reported he referred to certain African countries as "shithole countries" during a White House meeting with senior officials, a remark widely condemned by diplomats and politicians, including African diplomats at the United Nations, who deemed it "shameful, racist, and xenophobic."
Volatile Relations and Ongoing Challenges
On February 26, 2024, U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken announced the appointment of Tom Perriello as the U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, stating that Perriello would work to coordinate U.S. policy toward Sudan and support efforts to end hostilities and ensure effective humanitarian aid, in support of the Sudanese people’s aspirations for freedom, peace, and justice. However, the U.S. envoy’s efforts were limited to diplomatic rounds with no tangible solutions on the ground.
Observers believe that U.S. policy toward Sudan is not high on the new administration’s agenda under President Trump, who will likely prioritize pressing issues in regions such as the Middle East, Asia, and Europe, given the ongoing tensions in these areas and their direct impact on the U.S. economy.
In this context, Fath Al-Othman, former head of the American Affairs Department at Rasad Center for Political Studies, sees Sudan as a "secondary" issue for the U.S. administration. He adds that U.S. dealings with Sudan are largely conducted through proxies like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, with Trump focusing on relations with figures like Mohammed bin Zayed, Mohammed bin Salman, and Sisi, rather than prioritizing military resolution or democratic support in Sudan.
Political analyst Salah Shuaib, however, points out that continued escalation in Sudan may push the U.S. administration to intervene directly if the crisis threatens regional and international security. Should the situation worsen, Trump might pressure his advisors to provide effective solutions, especially if the conflict threatens American interests or Washingtons allies in the region.
Othman believes Trump has the leverage to pressure allies to halt the war in Sudan if he can propose a deal acceptable to the Sudanese military. Nonetheless, he does not see Sudan as a priority for the U.S. administration, given Trump’s focus on ending other conflicts.
In another development, the Sudanese Sovereignty Council announced on October 23, 2020, that President Trump had signed an order removing Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, a decision hailed by the Council as a "historic day" for Sudan amid the country’s transitional leadership. Politicians argue that U.S. policies on foreign affairs, including Sudan, remain consistent, with each administration varying only in its approach to serving American interests.
Trump’s Potential Stance on Iranian and Russian Influence
Iranian political leaders downplayed the significance of the U.S. election results on Tehran’s policies. Iranian government spokesperson Fatima Mahjari stated that Trump’s victory would not "worry Tehran" nor affect its "consistent" policies, adding that “it doesn’t matter who the U.S. president is, as our policies have been pre-planned.”
Meanwhile, Trump claimed in his election campaign that President Bidens policy of not imposing strict sanctions on oil exports weakened Washington and emboldened Tehran, allowing it to sell oil, raise funds, and expand its nuclear efforts and influence through armed groups.
Political analyst Salah Shuaib contends that “Trumps election is unfavorable for Russia and Iran, particularly in conflicts in Yemen, Syria, or Sudan, due to the hostilities between Iran and Israel.” Shuaib adds that Trump "may exert pressure on Iran over nuclear issues, while Iran supports the Sudanese military, possibly triggering international maneuvers to support other forces in Sudan, a move detrimental to the military and its allies in power, especially given Trumps desire to protect allies, particularly Israel, considering Sudan’s past support for groups like Hamas."
Analysts suggest that Washington is concerned about the growing influence of the Wagner Group in Darfur, which enables Russia to establish a corridor through Sudan to its military outposts in Libya and the Central African Republic. Experts argue that Wagner’s role in Sudan is part of Russia’s attempts to undermine U.S. and French influence in Africa, as well as benefit from the continent’s resources.
Othman, former head of the American Affairs Department, argues that U.S. sanctions pushed Sudan to shift eastward toward China and Russia. He believes Trump will only impose sanctions to appease allies, viewing Russian presence as non-threatening, especially with China as his main competitor, while Iran’s regional presence does not pose a major threat.
Sudan faces significant challenges in achieving political and economic stability, particularly as internal conflicts escalate. There remains hope that the U.S., with Special Envoy Tom Perriello’s appointment, will offer tangible support for de-escalation, especially if violence escalates to the point of threatening regional security.
In conclusion, the question remains whether U.S.-Sudanese relations will continue to be shaped by strategic interests focused on influence in Africa and countering terrorist activities, with the approach varying based on developments on the ground.
