Eritrea and the Armed Movements of Eastern Sudan: Playing with Fire
Report from Ater Magazine
Attention is focused with great anticipation and concern on the nature of the military movement that has emerged in Eastern Sudan following the outbreak of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces on April 15, 2023. The source of concern is the increasing tribal alignment manifesting in armed forms, supported and blessed by the State of Eritrea. This is especially troubling as the conflict spreads beyond the initial areas of engagement, extending to Central Sudan after the Rapid Support Forces invaded Al-Jazira State and approached the eastern states.
The mobilization of civilians to confront the expansion of the "militia" threat has received support from the armed forces. Observers suggest that this initiative may have been prompted by Sudanese and Eritrean intelligence in response to Eritreas concerns about the potential spread of the conflict and its impact on internal Eritrean affairs. Observers have warned of the consequences of this move, considering it a risky gamble in a region historically characterized by fragile security.
The first leaks about the existence of training camps for Sudanese armed movements within Eritrean territory emerged a month after the Rapid Support Forces took control of Al-Jaziras capital and the armys withdrawal, with their forces reaching the outskirts of Gedaref State in late December 2023.
These leaks confirmed that the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Minni Arko Minnawi and the Eastern Sudan Peoples Liberation Front led by Amin Dawood had established military training camps inside Eritrea, supported by the armed forces. However, according to sources close to Eritrean intelligence, Eritrea was more interested in arming tribal groups with ties within its borders. Eritrea had begun gathering members of the Beni Amer tribe to form an armed force independent of traditional groups previously active in the area.
Indeed, a new military group called the "Eastern Sudan Liberation Forces" emerged, led by Ibrahim Dunia, a well-known figure in Kassala State who had previously served in the Sudanese police before emigrating to Qatar to work in the Qatari police. He returned to Sudan after the war broke out.
Eritrean Sponsorship
Under full Eritrean sponsorship, Ibrahim Dunias movement held its first conference from May 10 to 13, 2024, in a camp near the village of Tamrat within Eritrean borders. The conference was attended by some individuals representing Sudanese parties and armed movements and was notably marked by strong Eritrean government presence, with no official Sudanese government representation. The "Eastern Sudan Liberation Forces" are estimated to number around 2,000 fighters, mainly composed of the Beni Amer and Habbab tribes. Ibrahim Dunia stated at the conference that the formation of the movement came in response to the increasing violations by both sides of the conflict and to protect the people of Eastern Sudan and defend their land and honor.
Journalist Jamal Hamd, editor-in-chief of "Adoulis," told "Ater" that "Isaias Afwerki is always worried about any peaceful or military movement in Eastern Sudan due to ethnic and geographical ties with western Eritrea." He noted that Eastern Sudan played a significant role in hosting the Eritrean revolution for three decades. Hamd continued, "Isaias is keen to prevent unrest in Eastern Sudan. To that end, he supports the training and arming of armed movements, especially given the internal tensions over the unequal distribution of power and wealth in Eritrea." He added that the political rights of Eastern Sudans inhabitants pose a constant concern for Afwerkis regime. "Afwerki thrives in an atmosphere of wars and unrest, and any peace and democratic struggle undermines his presence."
The Eritrean government previously hosted Sudanese opposition in the 1990s, establishing camps in Eastern Sudan that served as launchpads for military operations against the regime led by Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted in April 2019 following the December revolution. Eritrean forces were the actual support for any military operation by the National Democratic Alliance.
Changing Positions
Initially, Eritreas stance was fully aligned with the Sudanese government, beginning with cooperation to counter the expansion of the Rapid Support Forces towards the east. Eritrean support for the Sudanese government stemmed from concerns about its national security and western borders. Soon, Eritrea hosted other groups alongside the "Eastern Sudan Liberation Forces," including the "Beja Conference Forces" led by Musa Mohamed Ahmed, comprising the Hadandawa tribe, the "Eastern Regiment Forces" led by Amin Dawood, consisting of the Beni Amer tribe, and the "National Movement for Building and Development" led by Mohamed Taher Suleiman Beitai, whose forces are mainly from the Jumelab, a branch of the Beja tribes extending into the Hemishkoreb and Telkok areas near the Eritrean border. He has ongoing communication with the Eritrean authorities.
According to the Sudan News Agency (SUNA), General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereign Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, visited the Hemishkoreb area in early April. He called on the regions inhabitants to continue "praying for the victory of the armed forces in their battle against mercenaries and rebels."
Sources close to Eritrean intelligence indicate that the Eritrean governments position on the Sudan war has undergone a significant shift. The government decided to maintain an equal distance from both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. The first step in this direction was to unify the forces of the four groups under a single command.
The sources noted that before this recent development, the Eritrean Defense Forces had allocated a military unit of 5,000 soldiers to provide support if the situation on the ground in Sudan escalated and the Rapid Support Forces approached the eastern regions. They had already sent an advanced reconnaissance unit earlier to assess the situation around the bridges on the Atbara River.
A New Development
The recent expulsion of the Sudanese chargé daffaires from Eritrea last week marked a notable event in the relations between the two countries, especially amid the already tense regional situation. The incident was later acknowledged by the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Interpretations of Asmaras silence on the reasons for this sudden decision have varied widely. Some observers speculated that it might be linked to rumors about the Sudanese governments connection with Tigray fighters, who are allegedly fighting alongside the Sudanese army against the Rapid Support Forces. Others suggested that the issue might be related to the ambassador imposing fees on Sudanese citizens in Eritrea, despite the host countrys exemption of Sudanese from such fees due to the ongoing war in Sudan.
However, former Eritrean diplomat Fathi Osman, who resides in Paris, commented on the incident on his Facebook page, suggesting that there were leaks indicating the Sudanese diplomat was recruiting informants to spy on the training of armed groups at the Sawa camp in western Eritrea. The Sawa camp is the main training facility for the Eritrean Defense Forces. Osman noted that such actions are unacceptable to Eritrean authorities and constitute a breach of diplomatic duties, stating that diplomatic norms and practices require envoys to monitor and observe any activities that might pose a threat to their countrys security, "but through diplomatic means."
The expulsion of the Sudanese chargé daffaires, who was given 72 hours to leave Asmara, coincided with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerkis meeting with local leaders from Eastern Sudan whose forces are training within Eritrean territory. Among them was Nazir Mohamed Amin Tirik, leader of the Hadandawa tribe.
The Weaponization of the East and the Future
Concerns are growing about the impact of tribal mobilization in its military manifestations in Eastern Sudan, particularly regarding the future. Khalid Mohamed Taha, a specialist in Horn of Africa affairs, told Ater that the proliferation of organizations and the diverse fighters currently in Eastern Sudan are part of a larger crisis, involving the spread of arms and uncalculated mobilization, ignoring the fragile security infrastructure and social cohesion among the social components in the three states of Eastern Sudan. This situation could worsen with the arrival of tens of thousands of displaced people from other states due to the war.
He added, "The crisis is not only about citizens carrying weapons for protection or to avert potential dangers—after the targeting of civilians and their properties and dignity in the states where the war has raged—but it becomes dangerous if used for strengthening power, aggression, imposing political views, or asserting control by force of arms." He emphasized the importance of reviewing the size, armament, and influence of the various armed formations in Eastern Sudan, which now number about 18 factions, most of them claiming allegiance to the armed forces.
At the same time, political activist Khalid Mohamed Nour from Eastern Sudan said that the armed movement in Eastern Sudan is an inevitable outcome of current events. He noted that it is well-known that several armed movements have emerged during this war, with most establishing recruitment camps and graduating fighters.
Nour added, "But upon closer inspection, the movement that enjoys good acceptance and has the ability to effect change is the Eastern Sudan Liberation Movement, which organized its first conference." He considered the movements description of the consequences of the April 15 war as a good entry point for dealing with it. He stated that what this movement lacks is a comprehensive political project on which to build its alliances and correct the current state of affairs, giving priority to the gun over the project.
He noted that what distinguishes this movement is that its leaders are outside the traditional political circles that encompass other new and old movements in Eastern Sudan. Prominent examples include Musa Mohamed Ahmed and Amin Dawood.
He stressed the necessity of peaceful civil political work, warning against ignoring the current context and the comprehensive militarization affecting the country.
However, Jamal considered the current situation a replication of what happened in Darfur, "where the demands were legitimate, but political players and armed movements diverted those demands toward interests unrelated to the people and ethnic groups of Darfur, who often pay the price."
He added that the presence of these movements would exacerbate the problems in the East, as they are like powder kegs for tribal and ethnic conflicts witnessed in Eastern Sudan. He noted that these movements represent divisions within the same group, carrying the seeds of tribal conflicts with a clan character, fueled by Isaias Afwerki.
Similarly, Khalid Taha warned that the arms race would only lead to more competition and conflict, regardless of the seemingly unified stance of these formations now. He stressed that while arming is necessary, it should not be based on ethnic or regional alignments. "The more critical necessity is the serious effort to stop the war and work towards a comprehensive national Sudanese project, addressing all issues related to equal citizenship rights, power-sharing, building peoples power institutions, and laying fair foundations for a social contract under a permanent democratic constitution."
