Sudan Peace Talks in Switzerland: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Report — Moatinoon
Contrary to the famous Leninist saying "One step forward, two steps back," international and regional efforts to resolve the Sudanese crisis have progressed to a new phase, following an invitation from the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, last week.

Prior to the official U.S. invitation, which was foreshadowed by a report in "Foreign Policy" magazine, extensive diplomatic activities both publicly and behind the scenes at international and regional levels had stirred interest, bringing Sudan back into the international spotlight.

Despite the stumbles that have accompanied previous attempts over more than a year since the outbreak of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, which have not led to a definitive ceasefire, international, regional, and internal pressures have not waned. These efforts culminated in Washingtons recent invitation for the warring parties to meet on August 14 to reach an agreement for a permanent ceasefire and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to those in need.

Welcoming and Optimism
The invitation, involving the main parties of the United States and Saudi Arabia, with monitoring by other relevant countries and organizations, has been widely welcomed domestically and internationally. There is a collective hope that this will pressure the parties to address the severe humanitarian crisis and the large-scale displacement that has affected the Sudanese people, with over 10 million internally displaced and nearly 2 million refugees in neighboring countries.

Major General Dr. Amin Ismail Majzoub, an expert in crises and negotiations, told Moatinoon that the U.S. initiative had been well-prepared, with consultations and visits by the U.S. Secretary of State to key countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which are influential and connected to the Sudanese crisis.

Ismail added, "There were also visits from Saudi officials and a visit by Abiy Ahmed to Sudan, with consultations over more than six months to prepare for these negotiations."

Regarding the timing, Ismail noted that the war in Sudan has dragged on into its second year, affecting the citizens and the Sudanese people as well as neighboring countries that rely heavily on Sudan for resources, trade, or even labor that was present in Sudan and has returned to their home countries.

Ismail believes that the timing of the initiative is appropriate, considering the situation on the ground and its impact on the citizens, noting, "There is no hope for a military victory for either side." He added, "As for the agenda, it has not been announced yet, but discussions will likely focus on the ceasefire, humanitarian issues, and the political situation in Sudan, addressing the causes and effects of the crisis and the reasons that led to the war."

The statement by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on July 23 outlined specific goals for the Switzerland talks: "Stopping violence nationwide, enabling humanitarian assistance to reach all those in need, and developing a robust monitoring and verification mechanism to ensure the implementation of any agreement."

The statement clearly indicated that the talks do not aim to "address broader political issues," urging the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces to attend the talks constructively, emphasizing the need to save lives, stop fighting, and find a political path to resolving the conflict. "We join the Sudanese peoples calls for peace and democratic transition and urge the parties to cease fighting for a brighter future for Sudan."

Academic and writer Abdullah Adam Khater told "Mowatinoon" that the initiative consists of multiple components and phases, but the most urgent phase is stopping the war or hostilities and specifically facilitating humanitarian aid delivery to all Sudanese, especially in affected areas, whether in central Sudan, western Sudan, or the newly formed South Sudan.

Khater added that the U.S. initiative involves Saudi Arabia and Switzerland and would extend the Jeddah negotiations, considering the catastrophic situation in Sudan, which he described as worse than in Gaza or Ukraine, both of which currently hold international attention.

Khater expressed optimism, noting clear signs that neighboring countries are paying attention, as evidenced by the upcoming meeting in Cairo for neighboring countries and the meetings of civil and political forces in Addis Ababa. These developments indicate a move towards forming an international and regional umbrella to help Sudan out of this crisis, potentially ending with the principles of the glorious December revolution.

Journalist and writer Wael Mahjoub shared this view, stating that the Geneva meetings, invited by the United States, continue the many efforts over the past months to push the army and the Rapid Support Forces to the negotiating table. He told "Mowatinoon" that the initiative builds on the Jeddah platform, with the Djibouti meetings aiming to bring together all regional initiative holders.

Mahjoub added that these talks would build on the understandings reached between the parties in Jeddah and incorporate agreements made in Manama, expecting the talks to start from an advanced point once confirmed.

In this context, the Saudi Cabinet reiterated on Tuesday its commitment to continue efforts to resolve the Sudanese crisis and restore security and stability, welcoming the outcomes of the second consultative meeting to enhance coordination of peace initiatives in Sudan.

Khater mentioned that the second phase of the talks involves the African Union or IGADs role in developing political dialogue among civilian circles, aiming for a political process that leads to stability, addressing issues of constitution, transitional justice, and laying the groundwork for free and fair elections.

He emphasized that all initiatives consolidate efforts that began in various places, noting that the primary initiative is that of the Sudanese people, who still strongly adhere to the principles of the glorious December revolution and its slogans, aiming to develop them for the "Sudan of tomorrow." He affirmed that the negotiations would lead to the formation of a single professional Sudanese army, demanding that those responsible for igniting the war be brought to fair trials by an impartial judiciary.

Response from the Sudanese Foreign Ministry
While the Rapid Support Forces announced their acceptance of the U.S. invitation and their readiness to attend the Switzerland talks, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry, responding a week after the U.S. initiative, set conditions for their attendance. The primary condition was implementing the outcomes of the Jeddah Declaration signed on May 11, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. They also requested a meeting with the U.S. government for thorough preparation for the negotiations.

Dr. Majzoub considered the response of the Sudanese Foreign Ministry smart, indicating implicit approval and what he called "preparatory" indicators. The Foreign Ministry requested a meeting with the initiator to ensure thorough preparation, adding to "Mowatinoon" that they emphasized the need for the negotiations to be based on what was agreed upon at the Jeddah platform on May 11, 2023. He said they implicitly requested clarification of the agenda and the mode of conducting direct or indirect negotiations.

However, Wael Mahjoub pointed out that the U.S. State Department had officially mentioned that the invitation was extended to the army commander. Therefore, the Foreign Ministrys statement seemed meaningless, as it contained political undertones aligned with the Islamic movement and the National Congress Party, continuing their stance against negotiations.

Mahjoub added that the invitation was directed to the armed forces, which alone should respond with acceptance or rejection, or propose reservations. He noted that the regional and international stance remains firm in not recognizing the current government since the October 25 coup, a position that has not changed.

He mentioned that the Foreign Ministry had previously played a role in obstructing any moves towards solutions, referring to the multiple platforms issue. He recalled their previous attempt to bypass the Jeddah platform and start a negotiation process through IGAD and pushing the African Union to propose an initiative, which failed due to the latters insistence on a dialogue including parties aligned with the National Congress Party.

Regarding the success or failure of the talks in Switzerland, Dr. Amin Majzoub stated that the outcome would depend on the parties willingness to sit down and start negotiations. He said, "We cannot judge negotiations that have not yet begun as a failure." He advised against hastily concluding whether the negotiations would succeed or fail until both parties sit down at the negotiation table with the mediator and observers and issue a final statement. He mentioned that there are options even if the negotiations falter, noting that the initiator or mediator is responsible for announcing the collapse of the talks.