Report

Flood of the Egyptian–Ethiopian Dispute Drowns Sudan, “Moatinoon” Observe

Moatinoon
It has long been known that Sudan always approaches the months of August and September with caution. These two months are decisive in the story of water and rain and their consequences. For as much as people welcome a successful rainy season—bringing abundant showers that sprout crops and fill livestock—they are equally anxious about the uncontrollable floods and torrential rains that may follow.

This year’s rainy season brought a new chapter in the ongoing dispute over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD), which has been completed, as Egypt and Ethiopia clash while Sudan is caught in between—drowning, powerless to influence either side.

On Friday, Egypt officially and sharply criticized Ethiopia, accusing it of causing Sudan’s flooding this year. Cairo said that Ethiopia had opened the gates of the massive dam, which harmed Sudan and posed a threat to Egypt—describing the move as irresponsible.

Ethiopia did not turn the other cheek. The following day it responded, calling Egypt’s accusations false and harmful, meant to mislead the international community. Addis Ababa argued that the floods were caused by the White Nile, with which it has nothing to do, since it only controls the Blue Nile.

Moatinoon searched Sudan’s flood records from past decades and documented the following data:

Flood of 1946: One of the worst in Sudan’s history. It caused major human and material losses, with thousands of homes collapsing and vast areas of farmland destroyed. Hundreds of thousands of people were affected, and a state of emergency was declared in some areas. The flood level reached about 17.14 meters.

1988: Floodwaters rose to 15.68 meters, leaving 76 dead, hundreds injured, and extensive material losses.

2007: 64 deaths, 335 injured, and 30,000 homes destroyed.

2013: Floodwaters rose to 17.4 meters, affecting more than 300,000 people, destroying over 250,000 homes, and killing nearly 50 people according to official figures.

2018: Level reached 15.60 meters, killing at least 23, injuring over 60, and destroying more than 19,640 homes. Around 222,275 people were affected.

Floods of 2020
The year 2020 witnessed floods surpassing even those of 1946 and 1988. They killed 138 people, destroyed tens of thousands of homes partially or completely, and affected more than half a million people.

The Blue Nile, which meets the White Nile in Khartoum, rose to 17.66 meters—a historic level unseen since measurements began in 1902.

July 2020: Heavy rains began in parts of the country, with early effects recorded in Khartoum and Nile states.

August 2020: Impact worsened, with government reports noting hundreds of thousands affected across several states.

September 2020: A three-month state of emergency was declared. Between 500,000–650,000 people were affected, and more than 110,000 homes damaged or destroyed in 17 of Sudan’s 18 states.

October 2020: The number of affected neared 875,000, according to international reports.

Most affected states: Khartoum, Blue Nile, Sennar, North Darfur, and the Northern state.

According to UNICEF, 730,000 people—including 438,000 children—were impacted. More than 146,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. Families sought shelter in schools, while many remained outdoors.

The floods destroyed 179 public facilities (schools, health centers), damaged over 350 shops and warehouses, and killed more than 5,500 livestock.

Floods of 2021
Seasonal floods killed 84 people and injured 67 across 11 states. Victims died by drowning, electrocution, or house collapses.

About 8,400 homes were destroyed and more than 72,000 damaged nationwide. The UN estimated over 100,000 people were affected.
Majorly hit: Gezira, Kordofan, and Darfur.

Floods of 2022
Floods killed 112 people and destroyed tens of thousands of homes.
According to UN and government data, 226,000 people were affected, mainly in Gedaref, Kassala, North and South Kordofan, and Darfur.

Floods of 2023
With the war breaking out, chaos swept the entire country, making it nearly impossible to accurately monitor flood impacts. The devastation and mass displacement caused by the conflict overshadowed the floods.

Floods of 2024
At least 132 people died due to torrential rains. The collapse of the Arbaat Dam, north of Port Sudan, washed away 20 villages completely and partially destroyed 50 more.

According to the Ministry of Health:
10 states were affected.
31,666 families (129,650 individuals) suffered losses.
12,420 houses collapsed completely, and 11,472 partially.
Most damage was recorded in the Northern State and River Nile State.

Floods of 2025
The 2025 season continued the pattern of heavy rains. Government and local records reported flooding waves from late June into July and recurring in August–September.

By June 30, more than 125,000 people were reported affected.
7 states suffered flood damage.
64 deaths were recorded, with thousands of buildings destroyed.
River Nile State alone saw 31 deaths and 38 injuries.
The debate intensified in 2025 over the impact of water releases from Ethiopia’s GERD on downstream Nile levels. Some linked the floods to dam operations, while others blamed unseasonal rains and heavy runoff from the Ethiopian highlands.

Even as officials noted a decline in the Blue Nile’s flow from Ethiopia, the White Nile levels remained high—putting Northern State and northern Khartoum under pressure of potential flooding.