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Economic Monitor: The Budget Is Not a Political Speech but a Financial Contract with Citizens

Moatinoon
An economic monitor has played down the statements made by Prime Minister Kamil Idris, which appeared optimistic in his speech following the announcement of the government’s return to resume work from the capital, Khartoum, earlier this week.

Economist and Coordinator of the Public Budget Monitoring Forum, Abdel Azim Mohamed, told Moatinoon that optimism alone does not create an economy, stressing that the most dangerous challenge facing Sudan today is not a lack of promises, but rather the absence of fiscal honesty, clarity, and acknowledgment of the true scale of the crisis—along with addressing it through realistic, measurable steps.

He noted that economic promises are meaningless without clear figures, defined sources of financing, a publicly announced timeline, and transparent accountability mechanisms, emphasizing that “the budget is not a political speech, but a financial contract with citizens.”

In his speech, the Prime Minister stated that the government had presented the 2026 state budget without imposing additional financial burdens on citizens, adding that it aims to reduce the inflation rate to 70 percent. He also said the budget seeks to raise GDP growth to 10 percent and rein in exchange rates in the parallel market, as part of efforts to achieve economic stability.

Abdel Azim said these statements essentially reflect political aspirations rather than an implementable economic program. He explained that talking about reducing inflation, boosting growth, or stabilizing the exchange rate presupposes the existence of a stable state, functioning institutions, and real resources—conditions that are absent in the current reality.

For his part, Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim revealed in an interview with Agence France-Presse today that the state lost all its sources of revenue at the start of the war, when the Rapid Support Forces took control of the capital, Khartoum, and its surroundings.

He recalled that “most industries, major companies, and overall economic activity were concentrated in central Sudan,” noting that the region contributed about 80 percent of state revenues.

The minister confirmed that Sudan’s economy is experiencing an “extremely difficult phase” due to destruction, military expenditures, and declining gold and oil revenues as a result of the ongoing war for nearly three years.

In his remarks to Moatinoon, Abdel Azim said that talk of inflation remains within the realm of crisis management unless the budget is accompanied by genuine curbs on deficit financing through money printing and real control of public spending, especially military expenditure. He added that reducing inflation is not achieved through statements, but through coordinated monetary and fiscal policies, halting deficit financing, and reforming the tax system—issues that have not been clarified in terms of how they will be addressed amid war and eroding revenues.

He considered the budget’s target of reducing inflation to 70 percent as an implicit technical admission that the economy remains in the zone of runaway inflation, saying, “Even if the target is achieved, the rate would still be extremely high and does not reflect economic stability.”

Regarding the Prime Minister’s talk of achieving 10 percent GDP growth, Abdel Azim said this does not appear realistic given the destroyed infrastructure and a paralyzed economy across agriculture, industry, and services, alongside widespread displacement—“unless it is preceded by a real cessation of the war, the resumption of production, and protection of the private sector.”

He explained that curbing the parallel exchange market requires real unification of economic decision-making centers and securing genuine resources from exports or sustained external support. He warned that the parallel market will continue to be the de facto ruler and the most realistic indicator of the economy’s condition, as it is not merely a monetary phenomenon but a direct reflection of the lack of confidence in fiscal and monetary policies.